Pumpkin Carriage analysis

As I promised, I made an analysis of the current Wartune "chest" event, Pumpkin Carriage. Here is what I got from the free chests I got from clothing synthesis:

The chest's average value is calculated the usual way: multiply drop rate of each item by its balen value, and sum it up. I set mount hoof value to zero: if you are a low casher, with fewer mounts, then you maxed your hoofs for that reason. If you are a top player, then you kill 8+ boss in DI each run, and you maxed hoofs for that reason. 

Anyway, the chest's expected value was 28 balens for me, which is still no-buy. Especially after a massive nerf to dimensions and adding VAT to balen prices, I don't think too many players are in the mood of spending.

But the original question was, whether to open these chests, or exchange them for cloth / mount whip. Obviously, opening has a better value, so I strongly recommend going for that. If you want the clothes at all cost, do this: Open all Carriage but 90. If you dont get any cloth, exchange the remaining 90 for them. If you got 1 cloth, then open 30 more, and exchange 60, etc. 

About the new Valentine's chest, will post an analysis as well when I have enough statistics. If you have any, please don't hesitate to post it. Thanks!