Lucky rabbit analysis

Finished my lucky rabbit analysis. I know it's the last possible moment, I hope it is still useful for some :) I used the calculations of new item values I made here.

First of all, let's see the expected value IF you open these "chests". I was in a big trouble here. I had no statistics whatsoever :( So I had to make assumptions based on previous chest. So this data is not exact, just a guess: the best I could come up with.

As you see, it's pretty good value - but you can expect it since you need to open 4 chinese II chests to get one of these (hope you didn't spend balens to buy those!). As you can see, the value of coin of ancestry has skyrocketed: now you can exchange 4 for 80 vulcan packs, making one coin worth 600 balens! I think this is the best buy sincs the 2000 balen coupon. 

Now let's see what we can exchange for it:

The qty column is the required number of lucky rabbits, the value is how much balen the given item worth. As you can see, most exchanges are very poor :( If you have 200, you should go for the horse. But I think this is a quite unlikely situation. It can happen only if you bought a lot of chests (which could have been a very bad deal). The second best exchange is far the divinity souls. Please note that the expected value for opening chests and exchanging for divinity souls is the same. I recommend opening the chests - simply because you can get lucky and get the horse or a coin or two.

Some might consider getting blessing of light / gift of god. I do not recommend it, they are too expensive. I'm sure we shall be able to get these cheaper eventually. (Just remember the gem event where you could get 50 blesing of god each day!)

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Insignia value skyrockets!

For a long time, insignia was the second most worthless resource after daru. I never had enough inventory space, so I just exchanged it for XP books which I sold for gold. With latest additions, this has changed.

• You can „train” your marriage tree with insignia, so this cost 750 insignia per day - which turns into runestones, gem packs and fashion shards.
• New honor ranks mean new medals, which are much more expensive than Lord Divine medal.
• Since yesterday, you can exchange a nearly unlimited amount of insignia for valuable resources in the Wild Shop.

Let's see how much insignia I earn weekly:

About 3k from guild battles, alike 5-700 from battlegrounds, and about 7-8000 from Tower of King nightmare chests - if we can do all 5 rooms every day (which is not granted lately). So I earn about 10-12k insigna.

And how much I need?

1.) Marriage tree is 5250 per week.

2.) The new max honor medal is 4800 per week.

3.) So I have only 1k left to spend weekly in wild shop?

Right now I still have like 50k saved up in the bank, but its time to begin thinking on this.

Marriage chest.

Let's calculate the average value of these.

(using chances from cosmos chestcollection)

gem pack (value: 3 balens): 0.32 x 3 = 0.96 balen

runestonex10 (value: 20 balens): 0.27 x 20 = 5.4 balens

fashion shardx2 (value: 34 balens): 0.12 x 34 = 4 balens

eternal heartx3 (value: 12 balens): 0.02 x 12 = 0.24 balen

crypt key (value: 75 balens): 0.01 x 75 = 0.75 balen

shadow crystals, xp scroll, roses: value 0 balens.

total value: 11.35 balens

Since you get 10 such chests for 750 insignia,

1 insignia value here: 11.35 x 10 / 750 = 0.15 balen

Wild shop.

In the wild shop, you can buy valuable items for your insignia. I will make a separate article about insignia/balen exchange. Now to make it short, you can make deals in the wild shop where you exchange your insignia for 0.04-0.2 balen. So the marriage chest deal is not so bad.

New medals.

LD medal is 2400 insignia, Great Dragon medal is 4800. There are 2 significant differences: the later gives +100 endurance (+400 BR) and 4% less damage in pvp. That 4% is pretty hard to calculate into BR, it can be anything between 4k and 10k BR. Let's suppose you play for 1 more year, and you pay the weekly +2400 insignia for this +100 endurance and +4% damage reduce. So that's 125k insignia in total. If spent on marriage chests, it worth „only” 18750 balens, sounds like an „okay deal”.

So all 3 uses look decent, what to do now? How to save insignia?

I have 3 suggestions:

• If the marriage tree is crypt token double-day, and you have 10k+ crypt token like me, use crypt token instead. There you can save 1-2k insignia weekly.
• For the wild shop, be careful what you buy. Lvl3 gem and stamina potions are bad deal even for insignia, the other BR items (fashion core, luck charm, whip, soul crystal, fate stone, rune stone and of course the super-rares) are okay to buy.
• After you maxed out your honor, buy the best medal only when it's really necessary - class wars, BR event, important (cross-server?) guild battle. Otherwise a lesser medal is okay too, there is not such a huge difference, and nothing which helps you in pve (god's descent, sky trial etc).

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